AR 3663 produced an M9.1 solar flare at 06:19 UTC (May 4). A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 950 km/s was recorded. Coronagraph imagery courtesy of STEREO Ahead shows that a CME is associated and it may be similar to one produced by the X1.6 event early Friday. More details regarding the CME to follow once LASCO imagery is updated. Click HERE for a full video.
X-Flare
May 3, 2024 @ 02:30 UTC (UPDATED)
A strong, quick rising solar flare measuring X1.6 was detected around AR 3663 in the northern hemisphere peaking at 02:22 UTC (May 3). The latest imagery shows some dimming to the north of the region, meaning a CME may have been produced. More to follow. Click HERE for a full video.
CME Update #2: Despite coronagraph imagery showing the X1.6 CME event being directed mostly to the north, a updated tracking model is calling for the southern edge of the shock front to possibly brush past Earth by May 5th. A minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning Sunday.
CME Update: A fairly faint, northerly directed CME is captured here by LASCO C2 following the X1.6 flare event I first reported on early Friday morning at 02:22 UTC. So far it appears to be directed well off the Sun-Earth line and I do not expect any major impacts from this event. The region maintains a magnetic delta within the center of the group and will remain a threat for moderate to strong solar flares during the next 24 hours.
CME Impact / Strong Storm Observed
May 2, 2024 @ 14:30 UTC (UPDATED)
Somewhat unexpected, one or perhaps even two coronal mass ejections passed Earth with the first impact at 14:12 UTC (May 2). The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field pointed south for a long duration following the impact. Unfortunately for aurora sky watchers, a strong (G3) geomagnetic storm was observed during daylight hours. Although the storm has since subsided, a geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect for the next 6 hours should solar wind parameters change.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2024 May 02 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 May 02 1412 UTC
Deviation: 29 nT
Station: HAD
AR 3663 Growing
May 2, 2024 @ 10:00 UTC
AR 3663 in the northeast quadrant showed signs of development over the past 24 hours and us currently producing occasional low level M-Flares. Another region to keep an eye on is newly assigned AR 3664, now turning further into view in the southeast quadrant. It too appears to be growing and should be monitored..
Long Duration C-Flare and CME
May 1, 2024 @ 09:00 UTC (UPDATED)
An eruption just to the south of 3654 beginning just before 06:00 UTC (May 1) registering as a long duration C-Flare produced a coronal mass ejection (CME). So far the bulk of plasma appears to be heading mostly away from Earth. Another update will be provided later today once a tracking model is available. Click HERE for a movie of the eruption.
UPDATE: This CME was analyzed and it should pass just ahead of Earth. Only a minor glancing blow should be expected at best by May 4th.
Near X-Flare
May 1, 2024 @ 00:00 UTC
AR 3654 approaching the west limb produced an M9.5 solar flare peaking at 23:46 UTC (Apr 30). A further update will be provided should any sort of CME be associated. Eruptions at this point will likely be directed mostly away from Earth.
UPDATE: The M9.5 flare event failed to generate a noteworthy CME. Another event beginning around 06:00 UTC did however. See latest post for details.
Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.
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SolarHam.com launched on March 15, 2006 with the purpose of providing real time Space Weather news and data from various sources, all in one location for easy navigation. The site was created and is still maintained solely by amateur (HAM) radio station Kevin VE3EN.
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